PPT-Session 10b Decision Models -- Prof. Juran

Session 10b Decision Models Prof Juran 2 Overview Marketing Simulation Models New Product Development Decision Uncertainty about competitor behavior Uncertainty about customer behavior Market Shares. The ARMApq series is generated by 12 pt pt 12 qt 949 949 949 Thus is essentially the sum of an autoregression on past values of and a moving average o tt t white noise process Given together with starting values of the whole series Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Monte Carlo Simulation. Basic concepts and history. Excel Tricks. RAND(), IF, Boolean. Crystal Ball. Probability Distributions . Normal, Gamma, Uniform, Triangular. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Multiple Objective Optimization. Two Dimensions. More than Two Dimensions. Finance and HR Examples. Efficient Frontier. Pre-emptive Goal Programming. Intro to Decision Analysis. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Sensitivity Analysis. Goal Seek and Data Table. Marketing and Finance examples. Call Center LP. More Sensitivity Analysis. SolverTable. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. Operations Management -- Prof. Juran. 2. Outline. Optimization Extensions . Multiperiod Models. Operations Planning: Sailboats. Ne. twork Flow Models . Transportation Model: Beer Distribution. Assignment Model: Contract Bidding. GraphG prof 1 prof 2 prof 3 prof 4 phd 5 stud 6 stud 7 adv adv adv adv adv sup sup GraphI 1 prof 2,3 prof 4 prof 5 phd 6,7 stud adv adv adv sup 1Fortheformaldevelopmentinthispaper,itwillbeconve-nientt GraphG prof 1 prof 2 prof 3 prof 4 phd 5 stud 6 stud 7 adv adv adv adv adv sup sup GraphI 1 prof 2,3 prof 4 prof 5 phd 6,7 stud adv adv adv sup 1Fortheformaldevelopmentinthispaper,itwillbeconve-nientt Aurora 8B/10B v11.0 www.xilinx.com PG046 October 5, 2016 Table of ContentsChapter1:OverviewApplications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Evolutionary Solver. (Genetic Algorithm). Advertising Example. Product Design Example. Conjoint Analysis. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 3. Nonlinear Problems. 2. Overview. Finance Simulation Models. Securities Pricing. Black-Scholes. Electricity Option. Miscellaneous. Monte . Carlo vs. Latin Hypercube. Review of Binomial. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Sensitivity Analysis. Goal Seek and Data Table. Marketing and Finance examples. Call Center LP. More Sensitivity Analysis. SolverTable. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 3. Sensitivity Analysis. 2. Overview. Monte Carlo Simulation. Basic concepts and history. Excel Tricks. RAND(), IF, Boolean. Crystal Ball. Probability Distributions . Normal, Gamma, Uniform, Triangular. Assumption and Forecast cells. 2. Outline . Types of Processes . Kristin. Benihana. Scientific Management. Operations -- Prof. Juran. 3. IV.. Continuous. Flow. III.. Assembly. Line. II.. Batch. I.. Job. Shop. Low. Volume,. One of a. Peter . Poon Chong. , . Terrence R.M. . Lalla. Faculty . of Engineering, . The . University of the West Indies, . Trinidad. IConETech-2020, Faculty of Engineering, The UWI, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago.